February 2012 MLB Events
February 2012 MLB Events News
2010-06-21
Owners of baseball’s best record, the New York Yankees theoretically shouldn’t have much trouble beating the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, still whether or not bettors are willing to lay the -160 at Sportsbook.com with a Yankees’ team due for a potential letdown after a big series win over the Mets and having traveled cross-country is another question altogether. Let’s take a look at Monday’s contest. For more on this game, click over to the GAME MATCHUP.
With New York’s 4-0 win over the Mets on Sunday coupled with Tampa Bay’s loss to Florida, the Yankees (43-26) moved into sole possession of first place in the AL East for the first time since April 21. The Yankees, who have 16 more victories than the Diamondbacks (27-43), wrapped up a nine-game interleague homestand with six wins, and play their next six games at NL parks.
The absence of a DH poses some problems for New York, as manager Joe Girardi has been using both Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada at that position as they work their way back from injuries. “We’ll go day by day just to see how each one of them goes,” Girardi told the Yankees’ official website.
The Yankees start A.J. Burnett (6-5, 4.33 ERA), who allowed six runs, six hits and four walks in a season-low 3 1-3 innings of Wednesday’s 6-3 loss to Philadelphia. The right-hander has recorded a 9.00 ERA in losing his three June starts. He has also given up six homers over 16 innings during his losing skid after allowing four in his first 11 starts.
This could be trouble against an Arizona team that is fifth in the majors with 82 homers, and 15-3 when hitting at least two in one game. Also, with the DBack hitting just .253 for the season, StatFox cites a potential strong angle suggesting to fade Burnett:
· BURNETT is 13-27 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was BURNETT 3.6, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Burnett, who hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2005, is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA in five career starts against them.
Like Burnett, Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez (2-6, 4.70) has also struggled of late, going 0-4 with a 5.14 ERA in his last five starts. However, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees, but hasn’t faced them since 2007. Of course, these teams haven’t met since the Yankees swept a three-game series in New York in 2007.
Arizona is returning home after going 1-5 on an interleague trip. Their bullpen continues to struggle and is the worst in baseball in several categories, including WHIP and ERA. That could prove to be the most important factor in handicapping tonight’s game, as it often is. Take a look at the powerful FoxSheets Super Situation being offered up:
· Play On - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - AL team with a high on-base percentage (>=.350) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP >=1.550), playing on Monday. (56-30 since 1997.) (65.1%, +27.4 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Game Estimator calls for a relatively easy 6.5-4.2 win by the Yankees in this game and ARIZONA is 12-31 (-14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. In that sense, perhaps the emotional letdown and travel issues just aren’t enough to overcome what figures to be a mismatch in talent in this series.
The first pitch for Monday’s game is set for 9:40 PM ET.
Oakland A’s vs. Toronto Blue Jays
2010-05-03
Looking to stay on top a little while longer, the Oakland A’s take on the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend. The A’s have their work cut out for them considering the Angels are playing the White Sox, likely adding to their win column. Finding the big game to bet on each weekend is easy at www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
The Jays, fresh off their disappointing series against Boston, are probably seeking a little redemption. Eveland, who was riding high, came crashing down giving up seven earned runs in a mere three innings. This dropped his ERA from 1.93 to 4.57 in just one night, I am sure he would like to see some recovery in that number. Early season stats are much easier to manipulate, not to mention the game is against his former team.
On the other side you have Gonzalez is looking to continue his current hot streak. Pitching a seven-inning shutout puts spark in his fastball. His last matchup against the Blue Jays was in 2008 and ended in a loss, so I am sure he would like to even out the stats there.
While no one seems to be sure who will be on for Sunday’s game from the A’s bullpen, Shaun Marcum is likely to take the field. Having not won a game since 2008 despite extremely strong starts all season, Marcum will be out for blood. No matter what he says, he would like to see a few more W’s under his name, but he is right, it takes the team showing up.
At the beginning of the season, strength in batting order is just being assessed, unless you have a tried and true lineup. The move of Jose Bautista from the lead off spot in favor of Fred Lewis might just up his RBI numbers, and he’s already second on the team.
Eric Chavez, having just broken his slump, is looking to make it a streak. With a batting order in seeming constant rotation, there has been no real consistency with Oakland. Chavez is looking to turn his two-run double into a regular occurrence. Now that Davis has been underperforming the season, Patterson is getting a chance to show his stuff. Denied regular play last season, Patterson is looking to leave an impression. He’s already clocked a homer, sure to be looking for more.
This early in the season standings are kind of mute. With tons of games to go, it is difficult to predict what slumps, injuries, or team shake-ups might cause huge shifts in the rankings. For now, this is a time for Oakland to enjoy beating out Los Angeles. Oakland has many hurdles to overcome given the weakness in their lineup and early season injuries, but at least their bullpen remains pretty intact.
Toronto needs to take an opportunity to put themselves back on track if they want to keep pace with Boston. Tampa Bay seems to still be ruling the roost, so keeping ahead of the Sox should be of paramount importance to the Jays. They did not make the best of their series against them, so they need to log a few more wins where they can.
MLB Series Betting- N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2009-08-21
With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit." (Don’t neglect to review the latest info for all MLB contests by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)
Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.
How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”
In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. Sportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.
Game 2 Edge: Yankees
The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.
Game 3 Edge: Boston
The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.
Sportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105
StatFox Edge Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)
MLB: Texas hitters have Rangers up against Bad System
2009-06-25
Over the years, the best baseball played in the state of Texas has in been in Austin at the University of Texas, who plays in tonight’s College World Series championship game. The Texas Rangers have long been known for something also, hitting the ball and not winning many games. The Rangers organization has never been able to develop pitchers, thus having everyday hitters has been their best road to what success they have enjoyed. After a fast start, Texas is now tied atop the A.L. West Division, and on Wednesday, the Rangers will be up against Arizona AND a tough betting system.
This season, with a better bullpen and change in pitching philosophy, Texas has spent the vast majority of the time in first place in the American League West by themselves, until know. Having lost five in a row and nine of last 14, the Rangers have been caught by favored Los Angeles. To the casual baseball observer, one would expect another collapse of Texas pitching to be the culprit; however this is not the case at the present time, as the Rangers bats have gone uncommonly quiet.
In their current batting slump, Texas is hitting below .250 as a team, scoring as many as six runs only twice and averaging 2.64 runs per game. Though management is saying they are not concerned per se, there are troubling signs.
“Obviously we’ve hit a speed bump and the players know that,” general manager Jon Daniels told the Rangers’ official Web site. “But I’d much rather talk about an offensive slump than the pitching issues we’ve had to deal with in the past.”
In looking at Lone Star Ball blog, we find a series of Rangers woes when it comes to hitting.
In the American League, Texas has the highest percentage of swings and misses at 20 percent. The Rangers are last in pitches taken for strikes at 24 percent. Texas batters swing at 48 percent of the pitches they see, which is the highest in the AL, with first place Boston taking hacks the fewest amount of times at 41 percent. The Rangers only make contact 74 percent of the time, which is again dead last.
The pitching axiom of throwing first pitch strike is much easier against Texas, since they swing at one-third of these pitches. Consider Tampa Bay is the second most impatient team to swing the bat on the first pitch at 28 percent and doing the math you have a difference of almost 18 percent between first and second positions, which is an enormous gap.
Last night pitcher Max Scherzer of Arizona was able to strikeout seven Texas hitters in six innings, by pitching up the ladder to Rangers hitters. (With each strike pitching higher in the zone) With how undisciplined Texas hitters are right now, six of the seven pitches that resulted in K’s would have been balls with more patience.
There task becomes a lot whole more difficult this evening facing Dan Haren (6-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.822 WHIP). Haren would have much better record be it for more run support and is 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his career in interleague play, including 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last nine outings. Haren has been close to un-hittable in last five starts, with a 3-0 record and silly 1.66 ERA.
This places Texas in a conundrum, going up against a system that reads this way:
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, who are batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, with WHIP or 1.000 or less over his last five starts.
With Haren posting 96 strikeouts in 101 innings, the free-swinging Rangers might cool off the surroundings of the 100+ degrees heat in downtown Phoenix, providing natural wind flow. This system is 76-13, 85.4 percent since 2004. Haren is 22-7 in June starts (Teams Record) in his career and is 22-8 UNDER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.
Sportsbook.com has Arizona as -175 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Sure the Rangers miss Josh Hamilton’s bat in the lineup, but what they miss more is plate discipline, after leading the AL in contact on percentage of swings in 2008.
MLB: Pitching with Responsibility
2009-04-14
It is way too early for Major League baseball teams to hit the panic button; however it is not too early to start turning season around if your team is off to a slow start. Several such clubs will look to jumpstart their seasons on Tuesday night. Some are favorites backed by most players at Sportsbook.com. Get the latest bettor breakdowns on the BETTING TRENDS page and then read on for a brief look at the games.
Its opening day for Seattle (5-2, +3.9 units), who has played fantastic baseball on the road. However, the Halos are the road chalk and backed by over 80% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.The Mariners have a four-game winning streak after sweeping Oakland and have managed to start fast even without Ichiro Suzuki who will join the team tomorrow from the DL, after suffering a bleeding ulcer. Seattle is abuzz because “The Kid’ is back, as Ken Griffey Jr. returns in a Seattle uniform. The Mariners will face division rival Los Angeles (3-3, +0.2) and they will be starting Shane Loux. The 29-year right-hander hasn’t taken the ball to start a game in six years and has the added pressure of taking the spot of departed Nick Adenhart. The Angels are -110 money line favorites at Bookmaker.com, with total Ov9.5. The Halos are 26-10 after five or more consecutive home games and will face Carlos Silva (0-1, 10.80 ERA), who is 6-19 after giving up two or more home runs in last outing. (Team's Record) Seattle has lost 13 of 19 to Angels at Safeco Field.
After four miserable years in New York, Carl Pavano was seeking a new lease on life and a baseball pay check and hooked up with Cleveland (1-6, -5.8). To call Pavano’s first start rough would be an understatement since his ERA is one number higher (81) than what former Cleveland Brown Kellen Winslow wore last season (80). Pavano needed only 39 pitches to allow nine runs, six hits and walk three, last Thursday in Texas in loss. The Indians lumbering start makes them 13-21 in April the last two years and the pitching staff has been battered for 7.9 runs per game. They will look to avoid a second straight loss to Kansas City (4-3, +1.6) as +140 ML underdogs, facing a Royals club that is 17-5 in home games vs. teams outscored by a half a run or more a game on the season.
Right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 6.75 ERA) suffered just three losses in 29 starts in 2008 and his team needs for him to not take another defeat early in the season. The Red Sox (2-5, -5.2) haven’t done much right to begin the season, as pitchers have been slapped around for 5.3 runs per game and offense is checking in at paltry 3.4 runs per game. Last year’s AL MVP Dustin Pedroia is well below the Mendoza line, hitting .179 and power source David Ortiz has yet to lace an extra base hit. Boston was busted up by Oakland 8-2 last evening and is 20-8 in road games after a loss by four runs or more and hopes Matsuzaka can duplicate prior efforts, with the Red Sox 12-2 in road tilts in which he started. The BoSox are -150 money line favs at Oakland to even series.
Arizona was set up to capitalize on the early season, playing 18 of first 21 games at Chase Field. A 2-5 (-4.7) beginning means the Diamondbacks will need a quick turnaround and turn to Max Scherzer to spin year around. Scherzer throws heat and if he commands his slider, he can be every bit as dominant as his major league debut in which he retired all 13 batters with seven strikeouts. Arizona isn’t doing much on offense scoring 3.4 run per game and takes on St. Louis (6-2, +2.8), being 23-38 against a team with a winning record. The Cardinals have Cris Carpenter (1-0, 0.00 ERA) back, who only pitched just over 21 innings in last two years, before throwing seven in 2-1 victory over Pittsburgh last week. The Cardinals are -140 ML favorites with total Un9, which is worth watching as Carpenter and the Cards are 10-0 UNDER vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season.
MLB: NL Worst (West) - Strictly Play Against
2008-07-01
It was the late king of the one-liners, Henry Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.
In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!
What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?
We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.
The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.
With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.
The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.
The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.