MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set.
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia News
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