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May 18th MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball betting line online, the place that provides baseball bettors with all of the tools they need to handicap baseball games properly.
Welcome to baseballbettinglineonline.com, the place that provides baseball bettors with all of the tools they need to handicap baseball games properly.
Consistently scoring a profit on baseball comes down to being as educated as possible on all of the trends and stats that change on a daily basis. Need analysis on a pitching match-up?
Want to see who the public is backing? Log on daily to find all of this key information, and more.
Welcome to baseballbettinglineonline.com, the place that provides baseball bettors with all of the tools they need to handicap baseball games properly.
Consistently scoring a profit on baseball comes down to being as educated as possible on all of the trends and stats that change on a daily basis. Need analysis on a pitching match-up?
Want to see who the public is backing? Log on daily to find all of this key information, and more.
Baseball betting line online News
NL Playoff Races
2010-08-19
The same pennant-driven sentiments can be found in the National League too. Here’s a look at how those divisional and wild card races may pan out.
NL West: The Padres continue to dazzle as the surprise team of the National League. Although their hitting has been average at best, they are led by one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, one that leads the MLB with a glistening 3.27 ERA.
Mat Latos is the best of the team’s young hurlers and has his squad leading the San Francisco Giants by three games. The Giants are another pitching-heavy team with a 3.37 ERA that is third in baseball. The Dodgers ran away with the division last year and have shown an ability to get hot. It’s not likely they’ll prevail but at six games out, it’s not over yet.
The biggest question mark is whether or not the Padres’ pitching will be able to hold up. Nobody saw this performance coming and they aren’t like the Giants, who have several pitchers who have proven themselves capable of remaining dominant for an entire season. In the end, I see the Giants winning this division. Not only do they have great pitching depth and proven commodities, their offense will only continue to reap the rewards of recently promoted catcher Buster Posey. The line at www.sportsbook.com has the NL West wide open, besides the Dbacks all the teams have a shot. The Dodgers at +1000 could be a great bet to win the division.
NL Central: The St. Louis Cardinals have dominated this division in recent years and find themselves in a two-team race with a surprising team, the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals have a half game lead behind an excellent combination of pitching and hitting. Their 3.29 ERA is second best in baseball and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday continue to form a formidable power duo at the plate. A surprising cast of characters leads the Reds. Joey Votto has come from practically nowhere to be near the league lead in batting average, home runs, and RBI; Scott Rolen, previously considered done by some, has resuscitated his career in Cincinnati. Although the Reds’ pitching has been average, it has been bolstered by rookie Mike Leake, who skipped the minor leagues altogether.
The overall skill of the Cardinals can’t be overstated. In addition to having one of the best 1-2 offensive punches in baseball, they have perhaps the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia. With the exception of Garcia, all of these players have won pennants and excelled in clutch situations. Cincinnati is a nice story but I don’t expect their inexperienced roster to be able to stay with the Cardinals for the course of an entire season.
NL East: After a couple of down seasons, the Atlanta Braves are trying to return to their perch atop the NL East. Behind a balanced offensive attack and outstanding team pitching, the Braves have built a four and a half game lead over Philadelphia, the preseason favorite to win the division. Although Roy Halladay has been absolutely brilliant, the Phillies have largely failed to live up to expectations as they’ve struggled with consistency, especially on offense. The Mets and Marlins are both within eight games but neither seems capable of mounting a charge strong enough to supplant the two front-runners.
To be fair, a main reason the Phillies have underachieved is injuries. Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins have all been on the DL. There’s no reason to think this team won’t regain its continuity though. They’ve made the World Series the last two years and have kept largely the same lineup. They have the overall team power and experienced pitching that will enable them to get past the Braves and win the NL East.
Wild Card: This will ultimately be the most congested race in baseball and will be decided by the teams that narrowly miss winning their own divisions. If my divisional predictions hold up, that leaves Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Diego and the LA Dodgers as the primary contenders. Depending on how they finish their seasons, Colorado, Florida, and the New York Mets may play themselves into contention as well.
At this point, a prediction may end up being no more useful than a coin flip. However, out of the seven teams mentioned, I see the Braves prevailing. Knowing this is Bobby Cox’s last year and likely Chipper Jones’s as well, they are playing with a definite purpose. They have a perfect combination of motivation, experience, and outstanding pitching; one that I believe will clinch a playoff spot for them.
MLB: Yankees start west trip in Arizona
2010-06-21
MLB Series Betting- N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2009-08-21
With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit." (Don’t neglect to review the latest info for all MLB contests by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)
Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.
How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”
In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. Sportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.
Game 2 Edge: Yankees
The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.
Game 3 Edge: Boston
The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.
Sportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105
StatFox Edge Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)
MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
MLB: NL Worst (West) - Strictly Play Against
2008-07-01
It was the late king of the one-liners, Henry Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.
In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!
What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?
We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.
The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.
With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.
The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.
The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.
2010-08-19
The same pennant-driven sentiments can be found in the National League too. Here’s a look at how those divisional and wild card races may pan out.
NL West: The Padres continue to dazzle as the surprise team of the National League. Although their hitting has been average at best, they are led by one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, one that leads the MLB with a glistening 3.27 ERA.
Mat Latos is the best of the team’s young hurlers and has his squad leading the San Francisco Giants by three games. The Giants are another pitching-heavy team with a 3.37 ERA that is third in baseball. The Dodgers ran away with the division last year and have shown an ability to get hot. It’s not likely they’ll prevail but at six games out, it’s not over yet.
The biggest question mark is whether or not the Padres’ pitching will be able to hold up. Nobody saw this performance coming and they aren’t like the Giants, who have several pitchers who have proven themselves capable of remaining dominant for an entire season. In the end, I see the Giants winning this division. Not only do they have great pitching depth and proven commodities, their offense will only continue to reap the rewards of recently promoted catcher Buster Posey. The line at www.sportsbook.com has the NL West wide open, besides the Dbacks all the teams have a shot. The Dodgers at +1000 could be a great bet to win the division.
NL Central: The St. Louis Cardinals have dominated this division in recent years and find themselves in a two-team race with a surprising team, the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals have a half game lead behind an excellent combination of pitching and hitting. Their 3.29 ERA is second best in baseball and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday continue to form a formidable power duo at the plate. A surprising cast of characters leads the Reds. Joey Votto has come from practically nowhere to be near the league lead in batting average, home runs, and RBI; Scott Rolen, previously considered done by some, has resuscitated his career in Cincinnati. Although the Reds’ pitching has been average, it has been bolstered by rookie Mike Leake, who skipped the minor leagues altogether.
The overall skill of the Cardinals can’t be overstated. In addition to having one of the best 1-2 offensive punches in baseball, they have perhaps the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia. With the exception of Garcia, all of these players have won pennants and excelled in clutch situations. Cincinnati is a nice story but I don’t expect their inexperienced roster to be able to stay with the Cardinals for the course of an entire season.
NL East: After a couple of down seasons, the Atlanta Braves are trying to return to their perch atop the NL East. Behind a balanced offensive attack and outstanding team pitching, the Braves have built a four and a half game lead over Philadelphia, the preseason favorite to win the division. Although Roy Halladay has been absolutely brilliant, the Phillies have largely failed to live up to expectations as they’ve struggled with consistency, especially on offense. The Mets and Marlins are both within eight games but neither seems capable of mounting a charge strong enough to supplant the two front-runners.
To be fair, a main reason the Phillies have underachieved is injuries. Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins have all been on the DL. There’s no reason to think this team won’t regain its continuity though. They’ve made the World Series the last two years and have kept largely the same lineup. They have the overall team power and experienced pitching that will enable them to get past the Braves and win the NL East.
Wild Card: This will ultimately be the most congested race in baseball and will be decided by the teams that narrowly miss winning their own divisions. If my divisional predictions hold up, that leaves Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Diego and the LA Dodgers as the primary contenders. Depending on how they finish their seasons, Colorado, Florida, and the New York Mets may play themselves into contention as well.
At this point, a prediction may end up being no more useful than a coin flip. However, out of the seven teams mentioned, I see the Braves prevailing. Knowing this is Bobby Cox’s last year and likely Chipper Jones’s as well, they are playing with a definite purpose. They have a perfect combination of motivation, experience, and outstanding pitching; one that I believe will clinch a playoff spot for them.
MLB: Yankees start west trip in Arizona
2010-06-21
Owners of baseball’s best record, the New York Yankees theoretically shouldn’t have much trouble beating the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, still whether or not bettors are willing to lay the -160 at Sportsbook.com with a Yankees’ team due for a potential letdown after a big series win over the Mets and having traveled cross-country is another question altogether. Let’s take a look at Monday’s contest. For more on this game, click over to the GAME MATCHUP.
With New York’s 4-0 win over the Mets on Sunday coupled with Tampa Bay’s loss to Florida, the Yankees (43-26) moved into sole possession of first place in the AL East for the first time since April 21. The Yankees, who have 16 more victories than the Diamondbacks (27-43), wrapped up a nine-game interleague homestand with six wins, and play their next six games at NL parks.
The absence of a DH poses some problems for New York, as manager Joe Girardi has been using both Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada at that position as they work their way back from injuries. “We’ll go day by day just to see how each one of them goes,” Girardi told the Yankees’ official website.
The Yankees start A.J. Burnett (6-5, 4.33 ERA), who allowed six runs, six hits and four walks in a season-low 3 1-3 innings of Wednesday’s 6-3 loss to Philadelphia. The right-hander has recorded a 9.00 ERA in losing his three June starts. He has also given up six homers over 16 innings during his losing skid after allowing four in his first 11 starts.
This could be trouble against an Arizona team that is fifth in the majors with 82 homers, and 15-3 when hitting at least two in one game. Also, with the DBack hitting just .253 for the season, StatFox cites a potential strong angle suggesting to fade Burnett:
· BURNETT is 13-27 (-19.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was BURNETT 3.6, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Burnett, who hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2005, is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA in five career starts against them.
Like Burnett, Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez (2-6, 4.70) has also struggled of late, going 0-4 with a 5.14 ERA in his last five starts. However, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against the Yankees, but hasn’t faced them since 2007. Of course, these teams haven’t met since the Yankees swept a three-game series in New York in 2007.
Arizona is returning home after going 1-5 on an interleague trip. Their bullpen continues to struggle and is the worst in baseball in several categories, including WHIP and ERA. That could prove to be the most important factor in handicapping tonight’s game, as it often is. Take a look at the powerful FoxSheets Super Situation being offered up:
· Play On - Road teams (NY YANKEES) - AL team with a high on-base percentage (>=.350) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP >=1.550), playing on Monday. (56-30 since 1997.) (65.1%, +27.4 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Game Estimator calls for a relatively easy 6.5-4.2 win by the Yankees in this game and ARIZONA is 12-31 (-14.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. In that sense, perhaps the emotional letdown and travel issues just aren’t enough to overcome what figures to be a mismatch in talent in this series.
The first pitch for Monday’s game is set for 9:40 PM ET.
MLB Series Betting- N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2009-08-21
With two World Series championship rings in the past five years, the Boston Red Sox don’t play baseball games hoping to make the postseason; they play for division titles and settle for the wild card if that is last option. With roughly a quarter of the season to be played, Boston knows this is their best chance to close the six game differential in the loss column with New York, with just three games remaining between these two rivals. "There's [42 games] of our season left," Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek said. "We have too many good characters on this team. We won't quit." (Don’t neglect to review the latest info for all MLB contests by visiting the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.)
Boston (69-51, +3.3 units) feels they are gathering momentum, having won seven of last 10, including sweeping Toronto on the road. The Red Sox return home where they are 38-18 and could tie the Yankees for the best home record in baseball with a sweep. Terry Francona’s club is third in baseball in runs scored on home turf at 5.7 per contest and hopes to improve on that figure tonight. Besides all the obvious aspects that are in front of the BoSox, being bludgeoned 25-8 at Yankees Stadium two weeks ago in a four-game sweep adds incentive.
How good have the Yankees (76-45, +6.9 units) been since the All-Star break? The Bronx Bombers are 25-8 and have won nine of 10 series, including the last five in a row. "The one thing that I've been really proud about [with] this club is that there's a sense of urgency every night," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "This club knows how to continue to push, and that's a good feeling.”
In the opener, Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball and he been awful of late with 0-3 record and a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. New York will counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09), whose been particularly sharp in allowing two or fewer runs in his last four starts. Only a lack of run support has kept him at 1-0 mark in these assignments. Sportsbook.com has New York as -110 money road favorites, with total Ov10.5. The Yankees are 4-15 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5, while Boston is 37-10 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
As expected, Saturday’s contest will be a Fox Sports afternoon affair and New York will be a decided favorite. The pitching mismatch is the top reason; with A. J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69) facing Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40). The Japanese right-hander came to this country noted for low-90’s fastball, splitter and change, but right-hand hitters are batting .542 in his 11.2 innings of work. The Yanks entered this series without a win in Bean-Town in 2009, nevertheless are 16-2 after six or more consecutive road games this year. Conversely, the Red Sox have really floundered against the better teams and are 4-12 playing against a club with a winning record in the second half of this season.
Game 2 Edge: Yankees
The final contest is night-time conflict on ESPN and should be a beauty. Two big time pitchers will be paired in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) versus Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.58). The Yankees came into the weekend with a stellar 50-27 record in night games. The New York front office paid Sabathia a Hudson River barge of money and with crunch time now here, the big lefty is 4-0 this month, with 2.35 ERA and opposing batters hitting a feeble .185 against him. Boston also plays a decent brand of baseball under the lights at 50-34. Beckett has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts, with the Red Sox 14-4. He’s been especially effective at Fenway Park with 8-0 mark and the team winning 10 of 11 starts. Beckett and the BoSox are 17-5 as favorites.
Game 3 Edge: Boston
The Yankees are the better team and have the more favorable pitching matchups in two of the three games with the last contest arguably a push. Nonetheless, the Red Sox will want to flush the unsavory taste of being swept in the Bronx and have the confidence of winning seven straight at Fenway over New York. Thus, I’ll make a slightly wavering choice of Boston for this weekend.
Sportsbook.com series odds: N.Y. Yankees -135, Boston +105
StatFox Edge Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 7-9 (4 straight wins)
MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
MLB: NL Worst (West) - Strictly Play Against
2008-07-01
It was the late king of the one-liners, Henry Youngman who had the joke, “Take my wife – Please”. This would be an apt description of the National League West, where only Arizona is over .500 on the season. Just a half a season removed from having two teams competing for the National League crown last October, this division is about as popular as an SUV gulping 12 miles a gallon. Let’s take a look back to figure this mess out.
In 2004, the Dodgers won the division with 93 wins, San Francisco won 91 and San Diego was better than competitive with 87 victories. 2005 saw a complete reversal of fortunes, as three teams in the division lost 87 or more games and the Padres were good fodder for jokes as division champs at 82-80. 2006 saw a sharp improvement in a very competitive NL West, with Los Angeles and San Diego both in the postseason and Arizona and Colorado at least respectable at 76-86. Last year, everything was on the upswing for this division, with four teams over .500 and three teams were battling for two spots in the NL playoffs. Talk about your Wild, Wild West!
What changed so dramatically, that this division is collectively -65.9 units, which includes games against each other, where somebody has to win?
We’ll start with first place Arizona. On May 18, the Diamondbacks were 28-16 and looked every bit as good, if not better than the team that won 90 games a season ago. Most figured Arizona would cruise along this season; however the cracks were apparent last year, they just never manifested themselves. The D-Backs allowed 20 more runs than they scored, more befitting a team winning 79 games, not 90. Another factor of concern coming into the season was the Snakes 32-20 record in one run games in 2007. This was easily the most in baseball and the highest winning percentage also. These tend to be random events from year to year and Arizona would need marked improvement in other areas to compensate. Arizona hitters like to swing aggressively, a little too aggressively, since they are third in the majors in strikeouts. When they score runs, this is easy to overlook, however when your team is 13-24 in last 37 games, not so much. How bad has the offense been, they have scored three or fewer runs 72.9 percent of the time (27) in the last 37 trips to the ball yard.
The Dodgers roster has been overhauled the last few years and has introduced a number of young players like Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp into the lineup. While the talent is evident, so is the youth, with plenty of mistakes going around. Other veteran players like Jeff Kent have not produced and Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones have been on the DL. Not having an ace like Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88) has had trickle down affect on starting staff and an offense that is 27th in runs scored only exacerbates problems. Down 11 units, Dodgers backers need to see offense come together to help a decent pitching staff to make a run.
With the departure of Barry Bonds, San Francisco can finally go a new direction and do what they should have done three years ago, rebuild from the ground up. Despite 36-47 record, in many ways the Giants have been better than anticipated in certain areas. For bettors, they have the best money line unit record (still negative) at -5.3 units in the division. They are one of only seven teams to be at or above .500 (22-22, +6.3 units) and have a winning record of 15-13 in the division. Certain all-star, Tim Lincecum (8-1, 2.39) gives San Fran a chance every time he pitches and 25-year Jonathan Sanchez has surprised, with Giants winning 13 of his 17 starts. The 26th ranked offense is not going to score many runs, with lack of power and speed, but if starting pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito could pitch anywhere near ability, these goofy Giants could be contenders in the wacked-out West.
The laws of gravity finally caught up with San Diego. With only 1B Adrian Gonzalez a reliable offensive threat, the Padres are no threat to score many runs. The starting pitchers have way too much pressure on them to be almost perfect because of lack of run production and the wear shows on their faces and demeanor on the mound with runners on base. Even when the starting pitchers give them a chance, former closer extraordinaire Trevor Hoffman, is 40 years old and he is why San Diego has the worst save percentage in the big leagues at 48.4 percent. Too many poor personnel decisions and lack of production is why the Pads are the best Play Against team in baseball.
The Colorado Rockies as it turns out were a mirage. Much like seeking a Taco Bell at 3 AM with a belly full of Coors, everything was not as it appeared. Whether they put the baseballs in a humidor or not, Colorado has to score runs to win and averaging 4.2 per game is not enough, particularly when your team has the third-worst ERA in baseball at 4.83. The Rockies have had their share of injuries with Troy Tulowitzki and others missing time. Tulowitzki can speak with candor about what he has seen. "We haven't played well at all," admitted the shortstop. "We deserve to be in last place." Colorado is putrefactive 12-30 (-15.6) on the road, 22-42 (-21.6) taking on RH starters and 11-23 (-12.5) in this decaying division. Because Colorado has not hit with authority and the pitching reeks like a bottle of Coors Light left open behind a chair from a party after a week, the Rocks are rancid 11-24 in games decided by four or more runs.
With a half a season left, either playing against or staying away from the NL Worst is prudent attack.